Montreal, February 14, 2024 – Airports Council International (ACI) World has released its first biannual update of air travel demand for 2024, pulling data from more than 2,600 airports in more than 180 countries and territories worldwide.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global passenger volume was estimated at 10.5 billion passengers in 2023, or 119% of the 2019 level. The current projection for global passenger volume in 2023 is approximately 8.7 billion passengers, or 95% of the 2019 level, representing a growth of 31% year-on-year (year-on-year) compared to the 2022 volume.
* Estimated passenger traffic volumes are based on a wide range of data provided by ACI regional offices and industry experts.
**The projected baseline (pre-COVID-19) scenario is based on a standard time series forecast generated using the most up-to-date and complete historical data through October 2023. It also uses forecasts Adjusted World Airport Traffic Rates (WATF) 2019-2040 and takes into account the latest information provided by ACI regional offices and other contributions.
Source: ACI World Airport Traffic Forecast (WATF) 2023-2052
Year-to-date in October 2023 (YTD), total passenger traffic increased by 28% year-on-year, reaching 93% of the October 2019 level year-to-date. While the domestic market grew by 21% year-on-year (or 97% of the 2019 level), the international market led the recovery with 38% year-on-year, reaching 88% of the 2019 level.
Source: ACI World
Global passenger traffic in 2024 is expected to exceed the 2019 level for the first time since COVID-19, reaching 9.7 billion passengers, or 106% of the 2019 level (12% year-on-year growth rate). The growth rate is expected to gradually slow over the coming years as more markets recover from the effects of COVID-19.
Macroeconomic factors, such as high global inflation, slowing global GDP, pessimistic business confidence levels and geopolitical conflicts, pose significant risks and uncertainties in future projections.
Source: ACI World Airport Traffic Forecast (WATF) 2023-2052
Regional Highlights
- Passenger traffic in the Africa the region is expected to reach 219 million passengers in 2023 and 242 million passengers in 2024, the latter exceeding the 2019 level (106% of 2019). The region is expected to reach 261 million inhabitants in 2025.
- THE Asia Pacific The region is seeing the strongest recovery in passenger numbers in 2023, which is expected to reach almost 3 billion passengers. In 2024, the region will continue to grow, but at a slower pace, and is expected to reach 3.5 billion, or 103% of the 2019 level. In the current scenario, the region is expected to accommodate almost 3.9 billion passenger passengers. by the end of 2025.
- In Europe, passenger traffic is estimated at 2.3 billion passengers in 2023. In 2024, it is expected to be around 2.5 billion passengers. After returning to pre-pandemic levels the following year, passenger traffic is expected to reach 2.7 billion in 2025.
- THE Latin America-Caribbean The region saw its passenger traffic surpass the 2019 level in 2023, reaching 740 million, almost 108% of the 2019 level. In 2024, passenger traffic is expected to reach around 795 million passengers, and 849 million in 2025.
- In the current scenario, the Middle East is expected to continue growing, from 422 million in 2023 to 466 million in 2024, then to 510 million in 2025. However, due to geopolitical tensions in the region, the total number of passengers may be lower than current projections.
- THE North America The region is estimated to reach 2.2 billion passengers in 2024, 104% of the 2019 level. The number of passengers is expected to increase further to 2.3 billion in 2025, returning to its pre-pandemic growth rate .
Long-term global passenger traffic (2016-2052)
Source: ACI World Airport Traffic Forecast (WATF) 2023-2052
From 2023 to 2042, total passenger traffic worldwide is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.3%, with a strong recovery gradient observed in the first 3 years (CAGR of 9.1% for 2023 to 2026), then converge towards pre-COVID-19 growth. rate (CAGR of 3.6% for 2023 to 2052). Global passenger traffic is expected to reach nearly 20 billion in 2042, double the 2024 projection.
By 2052, global passenger traffic is expected to reach nearly 25 billion, about 2.5 times the 2024 projection.
Long-term international and domestic passenger traffic (2016-2052)
Source: ACI World Airport Traffic Forecast (WATF) 2023-2052
At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the international passenger market was more impacted than the domestic passenger market due to restrictions on international travel. The international passenger market has recovered significantly in 2023, and is expected to reach 3.5 billion with growth of 42% year-on-year. In 2024, international passenger traffic is expected to reach 4 billion, with growth of 14% year-on-year. Domestic passenger traffic is expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2023, with 25% year-on-year growth, then slow to 5.7 billion in 2024, with 10% year-on-year growth.
Comparing long-term CAGRs, international passenger traffic is expected to grow steadily with a CAGR of 5% between 2023 and 2042, while domestic passenger traffic is expected to have a CAGR of 3.8% during the same period. In 2042, 45% of all passengers are expected to come from the international segment and 46% by 2052.
About the ACI
Airports Council International (ACI), the trade association of the world's airports, is a federated organization comprising ACI World, ACI Africa, ACI Asia Pacific and Middle East, ACI EUROPE, ACI Latin America and the Caribbean and ACI North America. By representing the best interests of airports during key phases of policy development, ACI makes a significant contribution to ensuring a safe, secure, efficient and environmentally sustainable global air transport system. As of January 2024, ACI had 757 members, operating 2,109 airports in 191 countries.
