International tourist arrivals reached 97% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2024. According to UN Tourism, more than 285 million tourists traveled abroad between January and March, about 20% more than in the first quarter of 2023, highlighting almost the entire sector. – full recovery from the impacts of the pandemic.
In 2023, international tourist arrivals recovered to 89% of 2019 levels and tourism export earnings to 96%, while direct tourism GDP reached the same levels as in 2019.
UN Tourism projections for 2024 indicate a full recovery in international tourism with arrivals up 2% compared to 2019 levels. In the same vein, the latest data published by the specialized agency of the Nations United for Tourism show that:
But it also recalls the need to ensure adequate tourism policies and destination management, aimed at promoting sustainability and inclusion, while addressing externalities and the impact of the sector on resources and communities.
- Middle East experienced the strongest relative growth, with international arrivals exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 36% in the first quarter of 2024, or 4% higher than in the first quarter of 2023. This follows an extraordinary performance in 2023 , when the Middle East became the first region in the world to recover before the pandemic. figures (+22%).
- Europe, the world's largest destination region, exceeded pre-pandemic levels in a quarter for the first time (+1% compared to the first quarter of 2019). The region recorded 120 million international tourists in the first three months of the year, supported by strong intra-regional demand.
- Africa welcomed 5% more arrivals in the first quarter of 2024 than in the first quarter of 2019, and 13% more than in the first quarter of 2023.
- Americas This first quarter almost returned to pre-pandemic numbers, with arrivals reaching 99% of 2019 levels.
- International tourism is experiencing a rapid recovery in Asia and the Pacific where arrivals reached 82% of pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter of 2024, after recovering from 65% in 2023.
UN Secretary-General for Tourism Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The recovery of the sector is very good news for our economies and the livelihoods of millions of people. But it also recalls the need to ensure adequate tourism policies and destination management, aimed at advancing sustainability and inclusion. while addressing externalities and the impact of the sector on resources and communities.”
By sub-region, North Africa recorded the best performance in the first quarter of 2024, with 23% more international arrivals than before the pandemic, followed by Central America (+15%), the Caribbean and Western Europe (each +7%). Southern Mediterranean Europe has exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 1%, while South America has almost reached 2019 levels. Northern Europe has recovered to 98% of pre-pandemic levels. the pandemic, while sub-Saharan Africa and North America have both recovered 95%.
According to available data, many destinations around the world continued to perform well in the first quarter of 2024, including Qatar (+177% compared to the first quarter of 2019), Albania (+121%), l Saudi Arabia (+98%), El Salvador (+90%). %), Tanzania (+53%), Curaçao (+45%), Serbia (+43%), Turks and Caicos Islands (+42%), Guatemala (+41%) and Bulgaria (+38 %).
The strong performance of international tourism is also reflected in the UN Tourism Confidence Index which reached 130 points (on a scale of 0 to 200) for the January-April period, above expectations (122). expressed for this period in mid-January. .
Receipts
International tourism revenue reached $1.5 trillion in 2023, meaning a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels in nominal terms, but 97% in real terms, after adjusting for inflation.
By region, Europe generated the highest revenue in 2023, with destinations earning $660 billion, exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 7% in real terms. Revenue in the Middle East soared 33% from 2019 levels. The Americas recovered 96% of its pre-pandemic profits in 2023 and Africa 95%. Asia and the Pacific generated 78% of its pre-crisis revenue, a remarkable result compared to last year's 65% recovery in arrivals.
Total export earnings from international tourism, including revenue and passenger transportation, reached $1.7 trillion in 2023, about 96% of pre-pandemic levels in real terms. Direct GDP from tourism has returned to pre-pandemic levels, reaching around $3.3 trillion in 2023, equivalent to 3% of global GDP.
Several destinations achieved remarkable revenue results in the first quarter of 2024 compared to 2019 levels according to available data, including Serbia (+127%), Turkey (+82%), Pakistan (+72%) , Tanzania (+62%), Portugal (+61%), Romania (+57%), Japan (+53%), Mongolia (+50%), Mauritius (+46%) and Morocco (+44%).
Looking towards a full global recovery in 2024
International tourism is expected to fully recover in 2024, supported by strong demand, better air connectivity and the continued recovery of China and other major Asian markets.
The latest UN Tourism Confidence Index shows a positive outlook for the upcoming summer season, with a score of 130 for the period May-August 2024 (on a scale of 0 to 200), reflecting a more optimistic sentiment than at the beginning of this year. Some 62% of tourism experts participating in the confidence survey expressed better (53%) or much better (9%) expectations for this four-month period, covering the Northern Hemisphere summer season, while 31 % forecast performances similar to those of 2023.
Challenges remain
Economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant challenges to international tourism and confidence levels, according to the UN Panel of Experts on Tourism.
The latest IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2024) shows a steady but slow economic recovery, although mixed depending on the region. At the same time, persistent inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and trade disruptions continue to translate into high transportation and accommodation costs.
Tourists are expected to continue to seek value for money and travel closer to home in response to high prices and general economic challenges, while extreme temperatures and other weather events could impact the choice of destination of many travelers. This phenomenon is increasingly mentioned by the UN Group of Experts on Tourism as a concern for the sector.
Uncertainty stemming from Russian aggression against Ukraine, the Hamas-Israel conflict and other growing geopolitical tensions also pose significant downside risks to international tourism.
As international tourism continues to recover and expand, fueling economic growth and employment around the world, governments will need to continue to adapt and improve their tourism management at national and local levels to ensure that communities and residents are at the center of this development.
