Montreal, 19 September 2024 – Airports Council International (ACI) World has released its second biannual advisory bulletin on air travel demand updates, bringing together data from more than 2,700 airports in over 180 countries and territories worldwide.
Passenger traffic 2023-2024
Total passenger traffic for 2023 was confirmed this summer at 8.7 billion, almost matching ACI World's February 2024 forecast with 99.99% accuracy.
This record figure contrasts with pre-pandemic expectations. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global passenger volumes were expected to reach 10.5 billion in 2024, or 124% of the 2019 level. Current projections for 2024 estimate global passenger volumes at around 9.5 billion, or 104% of the 2019 level, and growing by 10% year-on-year from 2023.
ACI World confirms that to date in June 2024, total passenger traffic increased by 11% year-on-year, reaching 102% of the June 2019 YTD level. While the domestic market experienced a slower growth rate of 6% year-on-year, the international market drove the recovery with a 17% year-on-year increase.
In 2023, the international passenger market saw a significant recovery, with continued growth expected in 2024. By the end of 2024, international passenger traffic is expected to reach 4.1 billion, accounting for 43% of total passengers, while domestic passenger traffic is expected to reach 5.4 billion, accounting for 57% of the total.
Source: ACI World
Medium-term outlook
Despite positive macroeconomic developments, such as easing inflationary pressures, the medium- to long-term outlook has become more cautious due to escalating geopolitical conflicts, unresolved labor market bottlenecks, and aircraft delivery constraints. While the gradual recovery of international passenger traffic and the return to profitability of airlines signal positive dynamics, travel costs remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels and uncertainty surrounding global trade policies continues to grow.
* Estimated passenger traffic volumes are based on a wide range of data provided by ACI regional offices and industry experts.
**The projected reference scenario (pre-COVID-19) is based on a standard time series forecast generated using the most recent and complete historical data up to June 2024. It also uses the World Airport Traffic Adjusted Forecast (WATF) 2019-2040 and takes into account the latest information provided by ACI regional offices and other inputs.
Source: ACI World
Source: ACI World
Regional Highlights
- Passenger traffic in Africa Domestic passenger traffic is expected to reach 244 million passengers in 2024, an increase of 106% compared to 2019. However, there is some uncertainty regarding the possibility that some markets could experience a potential decline in domestic passenger traffic in the first half of 2024.
- THE Asia Pacific The region is expected to lead annual growth in 2024, increasing 13% to reach 3.4 billion passengers by the end of the year. While a few markets may not fully recover to 2019 levels in the first half of 2024, such as Thailand (85%), Indonesia (90%), Malaysia (88%) and New Zealand (89%), the region’s growth is largely driven by China (99%) and India (112%). However, the conflict in Ukraine and the ensuing airspace closures have negatively impacted connections between Europe and Asia, leading to reduced flight schedules between the two regions.
- In EuropePassenger traffic is expected to reach around 2.5 billion in 2024, or 102% of the 2019 level. However, the large domestic markets of Western and Northern Europe have not yet fully recovered to their 2019 levels and may not do so anytime soon.
- THE Latin America-Caribbean The region is expected to reach 773 million passengers by the end of 2024, nearly 112% of its 2019 level. The region has shown a strong recovery since the first phase of the pandemic, but its high baseline could lead to a slowdown due to the high traffic in recent years.
- THE Middle East Air traffic is expected to reach 449 million passengers in 2024, 110% of the 2019 level. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, the region has seen continued growth in passenger numbers and is expected to maintain steady growth in the coming year.
- THE North America The region is expected to reach 2.2 billion passengers in 2024, or 107% of the 2019 level, with strong annual growth of 7%.
Source: ACI World
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About ACI
Airports Council International (ACI), the trade association for the world’s airports, is a federated organisation comprising ACI World, ACI Africa, ACI Asia-Pacific, ACI EUROPE, ACI Latin America and the Caribbean and ACI North America. By representing the best interests of airports at key stages of policy development, ACI makes a significant contribution to ensuring a safe, secure, efficient and environmentally sustainable global air transport system. As of May 2024, ACI had 814 members and operated 2,110 airports in 169 countries.
