The Global tourism sector The U.S. economy is rebounding at a faster-than-expected pace this year, despite macroeconomic and geopolitical tensions, but environmental sustainability must be at the heart of its recovery.
This is according to the latest Global Tourism Outlook Report, released Wednesday by the World Travel and Tourism Council at its annual global summit, held for the first time in Africa, in the Rwandan capital Kigali.
Total tourist arrivals According to the latest forecast from WTTC in partnership with Oxford Economics, global growth is expected to be 5% in 2023 compared to 2019. This is an improvement on the 2% forecast by the organization in March.
“Despite the economic and geopolitical turbulence in 2023, we see that this year is so far showing a faster recovery than our initial expectations,” said Julia Simpson, President and CEO of WTTC, during the summit’s opening press briefing.
“Our previous forecast from March has now been exceeded by the current performance of the travel and tourism sector… every region is growing faster than we had originally anticipated.
“Once again, our sector has demonstrated its true resilience and courage in reopening after the pandemic.”
Tourist arrivals to the Middle East are expected to increase by 28% this year compared to their pre-pandemic levels, according to the October forecast. In March, the organization had predicted growth of 22%.
Asked specifically about the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel-Gaza On the wars against the recovery of global tourism, Ms Simpson said: “All I can say is that WTTC, as an organisation that represents travel and tourism, we stand for peace, we stand for building bridges and we stand for connecting people.”
Middle Eastern airlines have said that War between Israel and Gaza led to a drop in air traffic to the regionas the conflict rages and the international community calls for a halt to the fighting to alleviate the humanitarian catastrophe in the enclave.
Challenges include costly flight diversions for security reasons, high fuel bills and a drop in the number of international visitors.
The global travel and tourism sector contributed more than 10% of global gross domestic product in 2019, with the industry worth $10 trillion.
The sector has lost around 50% of its value during the Covid-19 pandemic, making it one of the hardest hit sectors.
So far this year, the sector has almost returned to pre-Covid levels, according to the WTTC.
Travel and tourism is expected to contribute 9.2% to global GDP, worth $9.5 trillion in 2023, just 5% less than in 2019. This represents a 23.3% year-on-year increase from $7.7 trillion in 2022.
“We are very resilient, we always come back. It’s in our DNA to travel and connect,” Simpson said.
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The industry has yet to fully rebound to 2019 levels, in part because the full potential of China's recovery has yet to be realized, Simpson said.
“The reason we're not there yet is because China, which is one of the largest travel and tourism economies, only opened up this year and is still going through these opening processes to make sure people can travel and get visas,” she said.
“We also had some labor shortage issues, which were short-lived, but hampered the recovery somewhat. But we're almost there.”
According to Ms Simpson, the value of the travel and tourism industry will increase to around $15.5 trillion over the next ten years.
But rebuilding the sector after the turbulence caused by the pandemic must also consider its impact on the environment, she said.
Travel and tourism were responsible for 8.1% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2019, 10.6% of total global energy and 0.9% of freshwater consumption, according to a study released last year by WTTC and the Sustainable Tourism Global Centre, part of the Saudi Ministry of Tourism.
“The travel and tourism sector is recovering, but as we know, sustainability must be at the heart of it,” Simpson said. “To grow better, you have to grow sustainably.”
Updated: November 2, 2023, 12:20 p.m.
