After a strong 2023, international tourism is on track to return to pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
According to the first UNWTO World Tourism Barometer of the year, international tourism ended 2023 at 88% of pre-pandemic levelswith around 1.3 billion international arrivals. The release of remaining pent-up demand, increased air connectivity and a stronger recovery in Asian markets and destinations are expected to support a full recovery by the end of 2024.
The Middle East, Europe and Africa recorded the best performance in 2023
The latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer provides a comprehensive overview of the sector's performance in 2023, tracking recovery by region, sub-region and destination around the world. The main takeaways are:
- THE Middle East led the recovery in relative terms as the only region to overcome pre-pandemic levels with arrivals 22% higher than 2019.
- Europethe most visited region in the world, reached 94% of 2019 levels, supported by intra-regional demand and travel from the United States.
- Africa recovered 96% of pre-pandemic visitors and Americas reached 90%.
- Asia and the Pacific reached 65% of pre-pandemic levels following the reopening of several markets and destinations. However, performance is mixed, with South Asia already recovering 87% of 2019 levels and Northeast Asia around 55%.
Arrivals of international tourists (% change compared to 2019)
Available data shows that several destinations, both large established destinations and small emerging destinations, are seeing double-digit growth in international arrivals in 2023 compared to 2019. Four sub-regions have exceeded their 2019 arrivals levels: southern Mediterranean, Europe and the Caribbean. , Central America and North Africa.
UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili said: “The latest UNWTO data highlights the resilience and rapid recovery of tourism, with pre-pandemic figures expected by the end of 2024. The rebound has already having a significant impact on economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities. Around the world, these figures also serve as a reminder of the crucial task of advancing sustainability and inclusion in tourism development.
International tourism reached $1.4 trillion in 2023
The latest UNWTO data also highlights the economic impact of the recovery.
- International tourism revenue reached $1.4 trillion in 2023 according to preliminary estimates, or about 93% of the $1.5 trillion earned by destinations in 2019.
- Total export earnings from tourism (including passenger transport) are estimated at $1.6 trillion in 2023, almost 95% of the $1.7 trillion recorded in 2019.
- Preliminary estimates of tourism's economic contribution, measured as tourism direct gross domestic product (TDGDP), stand at $3.3 trillion in 2023, or 3% of global GDP. This indicates a recovery in TDGDP from before the pandemic, driven by strong domestic and international tourism.
Several destinations recorded strong growth in international tourism receipts in the first ten to twelve months of 2023, in some cases outpacing growth in arrivals. Strong demand for outbound travel was also reported by several major source markets during this period, with many exceeding 2019 levels.
The sustained recovery is also reflected in the performance of sector indicators. According to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker, international air capacity and passenger demand have recovered to around 90% of pre-pandemic levels through October 2023 (IATA). Overall occupancy rates for accommodation establishments reached 65% in November, slightly above 62% in November 2022 (based on STR data).
Looking towards 2024
International tourism is expected to fully return to pre-pandemic levels in 2024, with early estimates pointing to growth of 2% compared to 2019 levels. This central UNWTO forecast remains subject to the pace of recovery in Asia and to the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical risks.
This positive outlook is reflected in the latest UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals indicating a better or much better outlook for 2024 compared to 2023. Some 28% expect similar performance, while only 6% expect tourism performance in 2024 to be better. worse than last year. Key considerations include:
- There is still significant room for recovery in Asia. The reopening of several source and destination markets will boost recovery in the region and globally.
- Chinese outbound and outbound tourism is expected to accelerate in 2024, driven by visa facilitation and improved air capacity. China applies the visa waiver to citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia for one year until November 30, 2024.
- Visa and travel facilitation measures will promote travel to and around the Middle East and Africa with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to implement a unified tourist visa, similar to the Schengen visa, and measures to facilitate intra-African travel to Kenya and Rwanda. .
- Europe is expected to generate results again in 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen free movement area and Paris will host the Summer Olympics in July and August.
- Strong travel from the United States, supported by a strong U.S. dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and beyond. As in 2023, robust source markets in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East will continue to fuel tourism flows and spending around the world.
- Economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant challenges to the sustainable recovery of international tourism and confidence levels. Persistent inflation, high interest rates, oil price volatility and trade disruptions may continue to impact transportation and accommodation costs in 2024.
- In this context, tourists are expected to increasingly seek value for money and travel closer to home. Sustainable practices and adaptability will also play an increasing role in consumer choice.
- Staff shortages remain a critical issue as tourism businesses face a shortage of workers to cope with high demand.
- Developments in the Hamas-Israel conflict could disrupt travel to the Middle East and impact traveler confidence. Uncertainty stemming from Russian aggression against Ukraine as well as other growing geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on sentiment.
